Nigeria's economy contracted in 2020 (COVID-19), recovered through 2021–2022, then faced surging inflation and a dramatic Naira depreciation following the June 2023 FX unification reform. The CBN responded with aggressive MPR hikes from 11.5% to 27.5% between 2022 and 2024.
Pearson correlation r = 0.9581 during the 2023–2024 FX reform window — the strongest statistical relationship in Nigeria's 2020–2026 economic data
Plotting these together shows why they're correlated — both accelerated sharply after the June 2023 FX reform, with a Pearson r of 0.9581 during that specific window (the full-period correlation is a weaker 0.6965).
COVID-19 contraction (-6.10%, Q2 2020) to recovery (3.97%, Q4 2024).
Peaked at 34.80% in December 2024 — the highest since the 1990s.
Lost over 70% of its value between May 2023 and January 2024.
Raised from 11.5% to 27.5% between 2022 and 2024 to fight inflation.